CFTC COT
| July 24, 2009
July 24, 2009
Please find attached a summary of today’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report. The non-commercial net long WTI position is now negligible for futures, dropping to 2.2k from 16.2k last week as short positions increased by 11.6k. The net long position in futures and options, however, is more substantial at 72.6k contracts, down from 82.3k last week. Not too much change in the net short non-commercial position in natural gas, dropping from 165k contracts to 158.4 in futures and from 74k to 72.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 23, 2009
+66
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories grew by 66 bcf last week, exactly in line with the market consensus and slightly above the 62 bcf five-year average, but well below last year’s 87 bcf build for the week. Total US inventories reached 2.95 tcf by July 17, a level never before reached prior to the third week of August. From this point until the end of injection season last year, inventories grew by 1.1 tcf despite severe Gulf of Mexico disruptions durin.....
CFTC COT
| July 17, 2009
July 17, 2009
Today’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report indicated little change in net non-commercial positions in WTI . Net length in futures only grew by just 800 lots to 16k while net length in futures and options combined increased by just 412 to 82k with both short and long positions growing by roughly the same amount. Non-commercial players reduced their long and short positions in natural gasincreased their net short position in natural gas by 4k to 164k contracts in futures and by nearly 5k to 74.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 16, 2009
+90 bcf
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT The EIA reported a 90 bcf build for the week ending July 10, in line with consensus expectations (Bloomberg survey median +91 bcf) but below our projection for the week. This is the first report that indicates to us significantly tighter balances than those that prevailed this spring. While this report is bullish for the front of the curve and we expect balances to continue to tighten through the remainder of injection season, we still expect key regional constraint.....
CFTC COT
| July 10, 2009
July 10, 2009
Today’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending July 7th, shows that WTI Crude Oil non-commercial net length declined by 20k contracts (19%) in futures and options combined to 82k contracts of net length, the lowest level since reaching 75k contracts for the week ending May 12th. Total open interest remained mostly unchanged in futures only at 1.16m contracts, but increased by 56k contracts (2%) to 2.59m contracts in futures and options combined. In petroleum products, net l.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 09, 2009
+75 bcf
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT The EIA reported a smaller-than-expected 75 bcf storage build for the week ending July 3 (Bloomberg median expectation of +85 bcf). The build also came in below last year’s 89 bcf build and the 90 bcf five-year average. The producing region squeezed another 12 bcf into storage while the west managed a very meager 3 bcf injection. Total US: 75 bcf (Bloomberg median +85 bcf) East: 60 bcf West: 3 bcf Producing: 12 bcf Statistical summary attached. Total US inv.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 02, 2009
+70 bcf
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT The EIA reported a 70 bcf storage build, in line with our expectations but slightly below the market consensus (Bloomberg median +75 bcf). This is the second consecutive week that the build has come in below market expectations, but our models indicate that w-o-w weather changes fully account for the smaller builds. We see no significant change in underlying fundamentals over the past several weeks, but the market may consider this report as bullish when viewed in.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 25, 2009
+94 bcf
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT The EIA reported a 94 bcf build, in line with our expectations but below market consensus (Bloomberg median expectation +101 bcf and 5yr avg of +84 bcf). Last year’s 85 bcf build occurred during a week with higher cooling loads (63 CDD vs. 46 this year), but beware those who argue that y-o-y balances are tightening. According to our models, this 94 bcf build suggests that very little has changed fundamentally during the past several weeks. Total US: +94 (Bloom.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 18, 2009
+114 bcf (bearish)
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT The EIA reported a bearish 114 bcf build in US natural gas inventories vs. consensus expectations of a 105 bcf build and outside of the range of expectations on Bloomberg (97 to 113 bcf). We expected a build of 110 bcf but noted yesterday that the wide cash vs NYMEX differential that followed from the NYMEX rally created the incentive to store a lot of gas. The producing region didn’t disappoint with an injection of 28 bcf, 5 bcf larger than the injection last w.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 11, 2009
+106 bcf
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT Total US natgas inventories grew by 106 bcf last week (+84 bcf year ago), a bit below consensus estimates of a 110 bcf build (Bloomberg median) and slightly below our estimate of a 108 bcf build. In a market chomping at the bit for bullish news, this week’s report could be supportive, but we reiterate that this 106 bcf build does not indicate any significant fundamental changes from prior weeks. Regionally, the song remains the same with western and producing-region s.....