DOE CRUDE STATS
| July 22, 2009
The California Head Fake
DOE CRUDE STATS The California Head Fake This week’s DOE stats are almost as bearish as yesterday’s data from the API . Headline API data showed a huge crude oil and product build of 3.1m bbls for crude oil and over 1.3m bbls for gasoline. Eliminate the huge 3.8m bbl crude oil stock draw in PADD V from the DOE data and the rest of the US built 1.8m bbls. The other import-sensitive districts built significantly – 924k bbls in PADD I and 1.633m bbls in PADD III . That’s in li.....
CFTC COT
| July 17, 2009
July 17, 2009
Today’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report indicated little change in net non-commercial positions in WTI . Net length in futures only grew by just 800 lots to 16k while net length in futures and options combined increased by just 412 to 82k with both short and long positions growing by roughly the same amount. Non-commercial players reduced their long and short positions in natural gasincreased their net short position in natural gas by 4k to 164k contracts in futures and by nearly 5k to 74.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| July 15, 2009
July 15, 2009
DOE CRUDE STATS July 15, 2009 Summer Sideways Shuffle While there may be hidden signals in today’s “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” from the US EIA / DOE , the main conclusion is that not much has changed from the prior week. There is no discernible improvement in product demand trends, no sign either that motorists are driving more or that industrial demand is growing. A slight increase in weekly deliveries of/apparent demand for distillates has no impact on four-week averages, and, .....
CFTC COT
| July 10, 2009
July 10, 2009
Today’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending July 7th, shows that WTI Crude Oil non-commercial net length declined by 20k contracts (19%) in futures and options combined to 82k contracts of net length, the lowest level since reaching 75k contracts for the week ending May 12th. Total open interest remained mostly unchanged in futures only at 1.16m contracts, but increased by 56k contracts (2%) to 2.59m contracts in futures and options combined. In petroleum products, net l.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| July 08, 2009
July 08, 2009
DOE CRUDE STATS Finished, Products Total commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products grew by 5.14 mbbls to a colossal 1,114,191 kbbls over the past week, in a march toward new records that doesn’t want to stop. That’s a rate of 734k b/d and includes a crude oil inventory draw of 2.9 mbbls, right at the consensus mid-point. Even so, inventories at Cushing, OK, rose by 1.583 mbbls, and total PADD II inventories rose 893 kbbls. While PADD I (East Coast) inventories built, PA.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| July 01, 2009
July 01, 2009
DOE CRUDE STATS Sky’s The Limit? At the current rate of growth of total commercial stocks in the US, which rose by 4.4 million barrels over the past week, they could well grow to 1,109,075,000 barrels before stabilizing or drawing down. That would be 20 mbbl – or more than one full day of total demand coverage – than was held in US inventories in September 1998, when oil prices were heading toward $10 a barrel. See attached pdf for detailed charts. The headline inventory numbers show.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| June 17, 2009
June 17, 2009
DOE CRUDE STATS A large crude draw offset by an equally large gasoline build. Apparent gasoline demand jumps 210 kb/d w-o-w but the four-week average barely moves. Runs drop 73 kb/d w-o-w but the gasoline yield jumps to 62.2%. Imports tick up 67 kb/d and are back above 9 mb/d. US crude oil: -3874k (Bloomberg median -1750k) US gasoline: +3385k (Bloomberg +500k) US distillate: +308k (Bloomberg +900k) Refining: +0.05 (Bloomberg 0.0%) Cushing crude: -5k See attached for graphs US cr.....
DOE CRUDE STATS
| June 10, 2009
Correction
We've included a correction in the first sentence: runs are down nearly 1 mb/d from the 5yr average, not week on week as previously implied.
DOE CRUDE STATS
| June 10, 2009
June 10, 2009
DOE CRUDE STATS Stock draws came in well above expectations for crude, gasoline and distillates, but refinery runs are down nearly 1 mb/d and demand data continue to look very weak. US crude oil: -4382k (Bloomberg median +100k) US gasoline: -1.553k (Bloomberg median +750k) US distillate: -318k (Bloomberg median +1500k) Refining: -0.41% (Bloomberg median +0.2%) Cushing: -942k See attachment for charts Headline number of 4.4m bbl draw in crude (4.0 mbbl draw east of the Rockies), d.....